Chongqing- On Monday morning, Iran’s President Ebrahim Raisi was announced dead in an accident of a helicopter “hard landing” in East Azerbaijan province of Iran. Along with him were Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian and other senior officials. The unexpected death of the 63-year-old Iranian president shocked Iran and beyond. The tragedy does not only leave Iran with an uncertain future, it might also impact the already-restless Middle East and Iran-US relationship. Regarding these questions, Chen Guangmeng, executive director of the Academy of International and Regional Studies from Sichuan International Studies University, shares his exclusive views with us.
Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi, left, and Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian, died in a helicopter crash on May 19 (Photo / Al Jazeera)
Will there be critical changes in the Iranian political situation?
After Raisi’s death, 68-year-old First Vice President Mohammad Mokhber was appointed as interim president. Meanwhile, the country's 14th presidential election will be held on June 28, 2024.
However, the presidency is not the most powerful in Iran. In the view of Prof. Chen, in the short term, the death of Raisi as a president might have some impact on Iran to some degree, but the biggest impact is from the loss of a suitable successor to the Supreme Leader. Chen explained that the elected president is second to the Supreme Leader, which aligns with Iran’s unique Islamic political system. “The Supreme Leader who holds the lifelong tenure is in charge of the country’s internal politics, military and judicial bodies.” Since the Islamic Revolution in 1979, the shift of the Supreme Leader has only happened once. In 1989, the current Supreme Leader Khamenei succeeded former Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, who passed away that year.
Selecting the next Supreme Leader has been pressing recently when 85-year-old Khamenei is facing health issues. Prof. Chen said that Raisi was widely regarded as a promising candidate for the next Supreme Leader. It’s not simple to select a successor to the most powerful position in Iran who can build consensus and be recognized by all parties quickly. Therefore, choosing an ideal successor to the Supreme Leader will be a significant variable that affects the Iranian political situation.
Will Raisi’s death affect the already-complicated Middle East situation?
The possible impacts of Raisi’s death on the Middle East have also attracted global attention.
Prof. Chen believes that because of Raisi’s sudden death, Iran will mainly focus on domestic power shifts and might reduce its participation in Middle East affairs. This means that the activities of the “Shia crescent” resistance force supported by Iran might decrease.
Some think Iran's uncertain domestic situation will lead to a more turbulent Middle East, and complicated interests and disputes will affect the relationship between Iran and the Arab World. Prof. Chen said that recently, Iran and Arab countries have maintained a peaceful status in general, especially the breakthrough that Iran and Saudi Arabia recovered diplomatic relations brokered by China last year. He also mentioned that the Arab world’s reaction toward Raisi’s sudden death is relatively calm.
Where will the Iran-US relationship head?
As president, Raisi was well-known for his hardline attitude toward the United States. Will the Iran-US relationship change after he dies?
According to the US media, within hours of the confirmation that Raisi was killed in the helicopter crash, the US State Department announced its official condolences for his sudden death. However, the official condolences sparked criticism from US lawmakers.
In the opinion of Prof. Chen, the Iran-US relationship may not be as cold as it appears. He said that in the early days of the Biden administration, regarding the Iranian nuclear issue, the United States tried to ease intensified relations with Iran and relax sanctions on it. However, due to the hindrance of hardline conservatives in the United States and Iran’s rejection to make compromises on some issues, the resumed multilateral negotiation on the Iranian nuclear program had not achieved any substantial results. The Biden Administration does not only maintain sanctions against Iran, but it shows the trend of tightening the sanctions as well; for instance, the House of the US passed legislation in April that would impose further sanctions against Iran — by making it harder for China to purchase Iranian petroleum and petroleum products.
However, the indirect talks between the US and Iran in Oman last week signaled the possible downgraded tension between the two countries. In Chen’s view, the unexpected Raisi’s death might press a “pause” button to ease and improve the relationship between the two countries. Rebuilding connections and communication needs more time.