Singapore - At the 2025 Land-Sea Economic Forum on June 12, Kishore Mahbubani, Distinguished Fellow of Asia Research Institute at NUS and Former Permanent Representative of Singapore to the United Nations, highlighted that in an era of rising global protectionism, the China–ASEAN partnership stands out as a rare example of constructive cooperation.
At the 2025 Land-Sea Economic Forum on June 12, Kishore Mahbubani delivered a keynote speech on Navigating Uncertainty and Building a China–ASEAN Community with a Shared Future. (Photo/Bridging News)
Over the past few decades, the United States has been a staunch champion of an open global economy, helping to drive worldwide prosperity. Mahbubani pointed out that in 1985, the global GDP totaled around $13 trillion. By 2024, it had surged to $111 trillion—an eightfold increase—thanks in large part to U.S.-backed institutions like the International Monetary Fund (IMF) that helped establish a rules-based, open global trading system.
That era is coming to an end. Mahbubani warned that the U.S. is retreating from the trade order it once led and moving towards protectionism, a shift that is contributing to growing global economic uncertainty. He referenced World Bank data showing that growth in developing countries has sharply declined, from 5.9% in 2000 to just 3.7% in the 2020s.
A striking example of this shift is the U.S.’s escalating tariff measures. According to a recent announcement by the U.S. Department of Commerce, beginning June 23, 2025, steel-derived consumer goods such as refrigerators, washing machines, dishwashers, and ovens will be subject to a steep 50% tariff.
This move builds on the "reciprocal tariffs" policy introduced under the Trump administration in April 2025. Under this policy, the U.S. demands that foreign tariff rates and non-tariff barriers mirror those of the U.S.; otherwise, it unilaterally imposes tariffs to “force reciprocity.” The policy triggered rapid retaliation, with China-U.S. tariffs spiking to as high as 125% in both directions.
Mahbubani stressed that deeper structural issues within the U.S. are driving these changes. He noted that roughly 2.4 million American jobs were lost due to import competition—a trend frequently blamed on China.
However, many economists argue that the root cause lies in domestic inequality. Mahbubani stated that over recent decades, the benefits of U.S. economic growth have disproportionately gone to the top 1%, while the bottom 50% have seen stagnant incomes. This imbalance has led many working- and middle-class Americans to lose faith in globalization and turn toward protectionist politics.
In contrast, Mahbubani said, China and ASEAN have built a cooperative relationship marked by mutual benefit and long-term stability. Since the signing of the China–ASEAN Free Trade Agreement (CAFTA) in 2001, bilateral trade has soared from $40 billion to nearly $1 trillion. According to the General Administration of Customs of PRC, trade between China and ASEAN reached 3.02 trillion yuan ($421 billion USD) in the first five months of 2025, up 9.1% year-on-year. ASEAN remains China’s largest trading partner for multiple consecutive years.
The recent upgrade to CAFTA Version 3.0 ushers in a new phase of collaboration, covering nine priority areas including the green economy, industrial chain cooperation, and the digital economy. Chinese automakers are moving beyond simply exporting vehicles—they are investing in entire NEV (new energy vehicle) ecosystems.
For example, Changan Automobile, a new centrally-owned Chinese automaker, has established a factory in Thailand with localized R&D and service operations. This approach exports not just products, but also technology, capital, and integrated industrial ecosystems.
Digital cooperation is also gaining traction. With a young, mobile consumer base aged 18–34, Southeast Asia offers huge e-commerce potential. However, lagging mobile payment infrastructure presents both challenges and opportunities. Chinese firms are eyeing fast-growing markets in digital payments and cross-border finance.
At the CAFTA Version 3.0 negotiations, officials from China, the ten ASEAN countries, and the ASEAN Secretariat participated via both in-person and online modalities. (Photo/Ministry of Commerce)
Mahbubani emphasized that ASEAN’s institutional foundation plays a vital role in this success. Despite its religious and cultural diversity, the region—home to 700 million people—has achieved sustained peace, stability, and coexistence, making it one of the world’s most resilient regional groupings.
This resilience also extends to macroeconomic performance. According to China Securities' 2025 Southeast Asia Industry Development Investment Report, both China and ASEAN are defying the global “stagflation-like” environment. China’s real GDP is projected to grow by 5.2% compared with 2023, with CPI rising just 0.2% compared with 2024. ASEAN’s GDP growth stands at 4%, with CPI at 2.6%.