Chongqing - China’s economy grew 5.3% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, reaching 66.05 trillion yuan (approx. $9.22 trillion), the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reported on July 15, highlighting steady growth amid global and domestic challenges.
This aerial panoramic photo shows a view of the Lujiazui area in the China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone in east China's Shanghai. (Photo/Fang Zhe)
"One notable feature of the first half is the stability of the economic operation," said Sheng Laiyun, deputy director-general of the NBS, during a press conference. He noted that key macroeconomic indicators showed signs of improvement. The surveyed unemployment rate remained stable, fluctuating between 5.0% and 5.4% without significant volatility. Consumer prices remained low and steady, while the balance of payments stayed even, and foreign exchange reserves were maintained above $3.2 trillion.
Final consumption expenditure contributed 52% to GDP growth in the first half, followed by a 31.2% contribution from net exports of goods and services, and 16.8% from gross capital formation. In Q2 alone, final consumption accounted for 52.3% of growth.
"We can see that domestic demand, particularly consumption, is the primary driver of GDP growth," Sheng stated.
Yang Daoling, director of the Big Data Analysis Division at the State Information Center (SIC), reported that government subsidies had fueled a surge in home appliance trade-ins, significantly boosting consumer spending. In Q2, online retail sales of major appliance categories increased 28.0% year over year.
China's expanding visa-free policies also supported domestic consumption. Rising inbound tourism contributed to the "China Travel" and "China Shopping" boom, further energizing the consumption market. "We remain optimistic about consumption in the second half of the year," Sheng added, citing momentum from earlier policies and ongoing efforts to stimulate spending.
Wen Bin, chief economist at China Minsheng Bank, attributed the surge in infrastructure investment to major projects under the final year of the 14th Five-Year Plan and funding from ultra-long-term special bonds. He noted that more than 2.2 trillion yuan in new special-purpose bonds and 745 billion yuan in special bonds remained to be issued in the second half of the year, pushing infrastructure investment beyond the scale of the first half.
China's foreign trade also demonstrated resilience despite international challenges. The total value of import and export goods traded in May rose 2.7% year over year, with exports growing 6.3%. According to NBS, while some labor-intensive exports slowed, shipments of higher-tech mechanical and electrical products expanded.
Demonstrated by data from SIC, containerized freight indices on China-U.S. routes surged in June, by 37.6% to the U.S. East Coast and 29.9% to the West Coast. "Despite tariff disruptions from the U.S., China's exports withstood external uncertainties with strong resilience," Wen said. "Exporters leveraged time windows and pursued market diversification in response to global uncertainty."
At least seven international financial institutions, including Citibank, UBS, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, and Nomura Securities, have recently raised their growth forecasts for China's full-year GDP in 2025. Goldman Sachs revised its forecast upward by 0.6 percentage points, and JPMorgan by 0.7 points.
Nomura's Chief China Economist, Lu Ting, cited recent progress in U.S.-China trade talks as a factor behind increased export activity in Q2. Nomura adjusted its Q2 GDP growth estimate up by 1.1 percentage points and raised its full-year forecast by 0.5 percentage points.
"This reflects the confidence of international institutions and investment banks in China's economic development," Sheng said.
Looking ahead, Sheng noted that while uncertainties remain in the external environment and structural adjustments continue domestically, China's economy has strong fundamentals to sustain steady growth in the second half of the year.