A Multipolar Future: How Local Currencies Are Rewriting Global Trade | Opinion

Global finance is entering a new era. The long-standing dominance of the U.S. dollar is showing strain as geopolitical rifts and financial sanctions push countries to seek alternatives. The world needs a multipolar international monetary system to strengthen resilience and safeguard stability. In other words, no single currency should unilaterally dominate. Recent evidence suggests this vision is taking shape: investors unsettled by volatile U.S. trade policies are exploring options beyond dollar-denominated assets.

Consider settlements. Six major banks—including Standard Bank and First Abu Dhabi Bank—recently agreed to use China’s Cross-Border Interbank Payment System (CIPS) for international transactions. CIPS, China’s homegrown alternative to SWIFT, is fast becoming a key component of global payments infrastructure.

Chinese banks also report a sharp rise in cross-border renminbi (RMB) business. Bank of China—operating 543 overseas branches in 64 countries—says 80% of those branches now offer RMB services, and in 2024 its cross-border RMB settlements reached CNY 43 trillion, up 35% year on year. These are not merely internal flows: foreign borrowers and governments are increasingly tapping Chinese financing. At Brunei’s Muara Port, for example, Bank of China provided dual-currency loans in RMB and Brunei dollars, helping local firms manage exchange-rate risk and complete infrastructure projects. Likewise, in May 2025 ICBC executed China’s first fully deliverable forward RMB–Brazilian real deal under a new China–Brazil currency arrangement, giving companies direct tools to hedge bilateral currency moves.

In global payment systems the yuan continues to climb. By mid-2025, the RMB ranked as the sixth-most-active currency for cross-border payments. More important than rank is the qualitative shift: countries across Asia, Africa, and Latin America are increasingly comfortable settling trade in yuan. Within the BRICS bloc and beyond, the ruble, rand, real, and rupee are being used in tandem with the yuan, while ASEAN partners are turning to the baht and ringgit for regional trade. African institutions such as Afreximbank are facilitating invoices in local currencies. In short, the renminbi is becoming a core node in a broader multi-currency settlement network.

A primary driver is the quest for financial sovereignty. Western sanctions on countries such as Russia and Iran have exposed vulnerabilities, and bankers warn that traditional dollar “pipes” can be politicized and weaponized.

Technology is accelerating the shift. The digital yuan (e-CNY) sits at the center of China’s strategy. A new international e-CNY center in Shanghai will coordinate overseas use, while the mBridge pilot—led by China’s Digital Currency Research Institute—has demonstrated cross-border CBDC transfers in seconds at minimal cost. Tencent’s participation in mid-2024 showed how next-generation networks could link multiple currencies securely.

At the same time, China is expanding official RMB venues. Shanghai and Guangdong have announced exchanges and bond markets for foreign investors, and the People’s Bank of China has run pilots with Hong Kong SAR, Thailand, and others to streamline yuan use across tourism, e-commerce, and finance. Each step deepens the renminbi’s footprint. Analysts note that, while capital controls remain, Beijing is prioritizing practical international use of the currency before fully liberalizing markets. In this sense, the digital yuan is both a symbol and a tool of the emerging currency order.

A multipolar currency system carries broad implications. It dilutes the monopoly power of the U.S. dollar and, with more nations able to trade outside the dollar realm, blunts the political leverage of dollar-based sanctions. For countries such as Pakistan, the new order offers tangible benefits. Pakistan already employs mechanisms like the China–Pakistan currency swap; deeper RMB integration could reduce exchange-rate risk in CPEC projects and bilateral trade. More broadly, developing economies can expect a greater share of commerce settled in local currencies—making exports more predictable and cutting conversion costs—while improving access to Chinese and other Asian markets.

Author: Qaiser Nawab is Chairman of the Belt and Road Initiative for Sustainable Development (BRISD), an international platform focused on fostering cooperation and innovation across Asia, Africa, and Latin America. He can be reached at qaisernawab098@gmail.com