Gaza Ceasefire Deal Offers Glimmer of Hope, Uncertainty Clouds Prospects for Lasting Peace

Sharm El-Sheikh, Egypt - Egypt, Qatar, Türkiye and the United States -- mediators of the Gaza conflict -- signed a joint document in Egypt on Monday on the recently-reached ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas, though with neither party's attendance.

Since the ceasefire took effect on Friday, the first major aid convoy entered Gaza on Sunday, and a large-scale hostage-prisoner exchange took place on Monday. These developments offer a tentative reprieve for the war-battered enclave after two years of Israeli military operations that left nearly 68,000 Palestinians dead, infrastructure in ruins, and widespread famine.

Yet, experts remain deeply skeptical that the ceasefire can evolve into a durable peace, citing Israel's internal political fractures, the colossal task of reconstructing Gaza, and the uncharted question of who will govern the territory once the fighting stops.

Delicate calm

The joint document was signed during a summit co-chaired by Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi and U.S. President Donald Trump, with attendance from leaders of over 20 countries as well as regional and international organizations. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu canceled his attendance at the last moment, and Hamas was not represented.

The Egyptian presidency said that the document was signed "to support the Gaza ceasefire deal," with summit participants calling for "global cooperation on securing the implementation of the deal and maintaining its continuity." Egyptian media described the document as "comprehensive," without providing further details.

Sisi, in a speech aired by Egyptian media AlQahera News, called the signing "a glimmer of hope," and reaffirmed that the two-state solution remains "the only way to consolidate peace." He said the agreement must lead to the establishment of a Palestinian state, adding that Egypt will host a Gaza reconstruction summit in November.

Meanwhile, Trump declared the Gaza war over, saying that rebuilding Gaza would begin "now" and perhaps be "the easiest part," and that it requires the enclave's demilitarization.

The latest developments came after Israel and Hamas agreed on Thursday on the first phase of a U.S.-backed 20-point peace plan -- scheduled to last 21 days -- following intensive negotiations in Sharm el-Sheikh.

As part of the deal, Hamas released all 20 living Israeli hostages and returned several deceased captives on Monday. Hundreds of Palestinian prisoners freed by Israel also arrived in Gaza the same day.

Humanitarian access also saw a marked improvement. The UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs said Sunday that cooking gas had entered the enclave for the first time since March. On Monday, Türkiye's first humanitarian aid convoy since the latest ceasefire reached Gaza.

"China welcomes and supports all efforts conducive to restoring peace and easing the humanitarian crisis," Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Lin Jian said Monday. He stressed that "the principle of 'Palestinians governing Palestine' should be upheld in the post-conflict governance of Gaza," and that future arrangements "need to respect the will of the Palestinian people and dovetail with the two-state solution."

In the early days of the ceasefire, fragile signs of normalcy and painful homecomings began to emerge. Along the coastal Al-Rashid Road connecting southern Gaza to Gaza City, thousands of displaced residents made their return journeys, often to neighborhoods in ruins. For many, the joy of return was tempered by the scale of destruction and the uncertainty ahead.

"The people of Gaza are like drowning swimmers pulled back to shore -- initially overjoyed, but that joy may quickly fade when they see the devastation, remember their lost loved ones, and realize that limited humanitarian supplies are far from enough to heal their wounds," Saeed Okasha, an Israeli affairs expert at Cairo's Al-Ahram Center for Political and Strategic Studies, told Xinhua.

Cracks beneath the surface

While the ceasefire has halted immediate fighting, many experts doubt it can lead to lasting stability in Gaza or the broader region and warn of a long and complex path filled with unresolved fundamental issues.

Gaza-based political analyst Hussam al-Dajani highlighted a critical flaw in the U.S.-backed plan, which "does not specify the legal and political nature of the Palestinian state, clarity on which is essential to prevent future clashes."

Echoing this skepticism, Ramallah-based analyst Jihad Harb criticized the U.S.-backed plan for its vagueness, particularly regarding the structure and sovereignty of a future Palestinian state.

"The current circumstances are not conducive to achieving lasting peace in the foreseeable future," Harb said, adding that "the proposed paths diverge between the U.S. plan and international initiatives based on the two-state solution."

Steven Wright, a professor at Qatar's Hamad Bin Khalifa University, urged tempered expectations. "Critical questions remain regarding how disarmament will be implemented and verified, how post-war reconstruction will proceed, and what the political status of Hamas will be."

Noting that the deal excludes Hamas from governance without indicating the group will disband, Wright told Xinhua that until these issues are clarified, the deal represents "a fragile ceasefire rather than lasting peace."

On Sunday, Netanyahu struck a defiant note in a televised address, saying, "Wherever we fought, we won ... But the campaign is not over yet." He warned that Israel faces "very big security challenges" and that "some of our enemies are trying to regroup."

Roee Kibrik, head of research at the Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies, told Xinhua that with the hostage issue resolved, Netanyahu "likely has an interest in resuming the fighting."

"It will not be difficult for Netanyahu to seize upon some pretext to claim that Hamas has not been fully disarmed diplomatically, and that military action is therefore necessary," Kibrik said. He also warned that Israel's far-right factions would continue advancing their agenda elsewhere, "particularly through ongoing annexation and dispossession efforts in the West Bank."

An article published by The Conversation website last week underscored the fragility of the deal, noting that while the parties have "agreed to a road-map to peace in principle," what is in place resembles past ceasefires, which are not equivalent to "a peace deal or an armistice."

The article criticized the U.S.-backed plan as "very light on specifics" and warned that issues such as Israeli settlement expansion, the status of Jerusalem, and demilitarization remain deeply contentious.

Furthermore, it is still unclear whether the ceasefire in Gaza will ease Israel's multi-front tensions in the region. A day after the ceasefire took effect, Israel launched airstrikes on six heavy equipment yards in southern Lebanon's Al-Msaylih village, killing one and injuring seven.

Lebanese President Joseph Aoun said later that the airstrikes raised "fundamental challenges" for Lebanon and the international community, "including whether anyone is thinking of compensating for Gaza through Lebanon, to sustain political profiteering through fire and bloodshed."

Yemeni political analyst Yasin Al-Tamimi told Xinhua that although Yemen's Houthi group has pledged to halt operations if Israel ceases attacks on Gaza, the regional situation remains volatile.

"Even if the Houthis suspend their attacks, Israel's persistent perception of them as a security threat could keep the tensions alive," Al-Tamimi said, adding that "Israel may still target the Houthis in Yemen, sustaining a cycle of tension."

Self-styled peacemaker

Although the ceasefire holds for now, many observers question whether Washington's mediation is driven by deeper political calculations.

Ramallah-based political analyst Esmat Mansour said that "the United States is trying to reposition itself and reinforce Israel as a key regional partner." He told Xinhua, "U.S. engagement is primarily aimed at protecting Israel after its international isolation," rather than "ensuring balanced outcomes for all parties."

Nabil al-Bukiri, director of the Arab Forum for Studies and Development, told Xinhua that the U.S.-backed plan is detached from regional realities, and "lacks sincerity and substance."

According to Iran's Fararu news website, Trump's latest claim that the U.S. strike on Iranian nuclear facilities in June has helped secure the Gaza ceasefire deal points to a more tactical approach by Washington, which, together with Israel, will use the ceasefire as a potential "pause" to rearm and plan future operations.

"There is actually no new variable shaping U.S. strategy -- it has always revolved around serving Israel's interests," Mootaz Ahmadein Khalil, Egypt's former permanent representative to the UN, told Xinhua, adding, "Trump himself declared that the main purpose of the plan is to restore Israel's reputation, which has been severely damaged because of the war crimes it committed in Gaza."

He outlined deeper U.S. strategic objectives as ensuring Israeli regional dominance, gaining greater access to Gulf state resources through projects linked to Trump's development plan, eliminating Hamas and the concept of armed resistance, and expanding the Abraham Accords to include Saudi Arabia.

"The people of Gaza have endured unimaginable hardship -- bombings, hunger and disease -- under a system of impunity that enjoyed Western backing," said Aden-based military observer Ali Bin Hadi.

Given this, "it is difficult to see the United States, which has been a direct enabler of this suffering, as a neutral mediator," he said.