Chongqing - As a major inland city in southwest China, Chongqing is stepping up preparations for rising weather risks linked to a strengthening El Niño, expanding monitoring, AI-powered forecasting and cross-department coordination ahead of the winter season.
The landscape of Chongqing. (Photo/Chongqing Nan'an District)
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) on October 8 said sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific are forecast to reach record levels during October-December 2026, with the El Niño event expected to intensify toward a peak around December. The WMO forecasts the seasonal average Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomaly at about +3.7 degrees Celsius, the highest since observations began.
A day later, on October 9, Dong Xinning, a senior engineer at the Chongqing Climate Center, said the El Niño currently developing had reached a super-strong level based on the latest monitoring by China's National Climate Center.
Based on the effects of previous strong El Niño events, Dong said China is likely to see a higher probability of a warmer-than-usual winter in many areas, while southern regions could receive more precipitation. Chongqing also has a relatively high probability of a warm winter, although periodic strong cold-air outbreaks could still cause significant temperature fluctuations.
The latest warning comes as weather risks in the mountainous city grow increasingly complex.
Extreme weather is raising the demand for earlier warnings
During the 14th Five-Year Plan period (2021-2025), Chongqing added 624 ground weather stations and 16 weather radars, while radar coverage at an altitude of 500 meters increased from 21.8% to 66.5%. Monitoring coverage for locations vulnerable to flash floods and geological disasters reached 73.5% and 72.9%, respectively.
The Chongqing Meteorological Bureau's intelligent hazardous weather forecasting system features a real-time optimization module. (Photo/Chongqing Meteorological Bureau)
Yang Zhi, deputy director of the Chongqing Meteorological Bureau, said the city has also developed the "Tianzi Qianli" AI forecasting model and established a progressive forecasting system covering 24 hours, 12 hours, six hours, two hours and the immediate period.
The system can issue weather warnings down to the township and subdistrict level. A centralized platform uses 15 authoritative channels to deliver warnings within one minute to government decision-makers, within three minutes to emergency response personnel, and within three to eight minutes to the public. Public warning coverage has reached 99.9%.
On August 1, 2026, community grid workers in Jiangjin District, Chongqing, went door to door to notify elderly people living alone to evacuate during a severe convective weather event. (Photo/Chongqing Meteorological Bureau)
By the end of the 14th Five-Year Plan period, the average lead time for heavy-rain warnings had increased from 57 minutes to 125 minutes, while the hit rate rose from 93% to 98%.
Weather data is being integrated into city operations
Chongqing's meteorological services are increasingly used beyond conventional weather forecasting, with government agencies collaborating on transportation, energy, agriculture, urban planning, and disaster prevention.
A microclimate observation station at a pomelo orchard in Youyang Tujia and Miao Autonomous County, Chongqing. (Photo/Chongqing Meteorological Bureau)
Shen Jian, deputy director of the Chongqing Maritime Safety Administration, said meteorological services are particularly important for navigation along the Yangtze River. Chongqing oversees about 680 kilometers of the river's upper reaches, where complex terrain can produce sudden fog, strong winds, thunderstorms and heavy rain.
During a severe convective weather event on April 10, 2026, meteorological and maritime authorities jointly assessed conditions and imposed heightened controls on 580 kilometers of the Yangtze and more than 450 vessels. Since the beginning of the year, the two departments have jointly issued 96 water-transport weather safety warnings.
The same approach is being applied to energy. Chongqing provides weather services to 28 energy companies, supporting 25 wind farms, five centralized photovoltaic plants and 34 hydropower stations.
Climate information is also being incorporated into financial services. Eight districts and counties have introduced agricultural weather-index insurance, while three have launched "climate loans." Cumulative credit under the climate-loan program has reached 755 million yuan, with climate assessments used as a reference for lending decisions and interest-rate pricing.
AI and climate services shape Chongqing's next five years
On October 10, the Chongqing Meteorological Bureau held a meeting on the high-quality development of meteorological services, reviewed the city's work during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, and outlined priorities for the 15th Five-Year Plan period (2026-2030).
The bureau plans to shift further toward scenario-based and digital weather services, using AI and big data to support disaster prevention, transportation, energy, agriculture, tourism and the low-altitude economy.
The "Extreme Weather Response" integrated emergency management scenario in Dashiba Subdistrict, Chongqing Liangjiang New Area. (Photo/Chongqing Meteorological Bureau)
Li Yonghua, director of the Chongqing Climate Center, said the center plans to strengthen climate-change impact assessment, climate prediction, risk assessment and climate feasibility studies, while improving the use of AI in climate services.
He Jun, director of the Chongqing Meteorological Service Center, said the city is developing AI agents for sectors including transportation, energy, tourism and health. The center has created more than 40 meteorological service skills and is working with 16 organizations across different sectors.
The city is also extending meteorological cooperation beyond its administrative boundaries. It plans to strengthen coordination with neighboring Sichuan, Hubei, and Guizhou provinces; improve weather services for the China-Europe Railway Express and the New International Land-Sea Trade Corridor; and promote Chongqing's mountain-weather warning technologies internationally.
For Chongqing, the latest El Niño forecast comes as the city redesigns its meteorological system around earlier warnings, more precise risk assessments, and closer integration with government and industry operations. The immediate focus is the winter weather ahead, while the longer-term task is building services that can respond to increasingly complex climate and weather risks.